December 2025 Forecasts and Discussions

[Typeing3]

00z GFS ensembles:

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00z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image (8).png

00z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (9).png

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[AbbyJr]

#endofDEC

FWIW, the recent Euro runs have it getting cold around mid month. I'm still skeptical though as any model over 200hrs out is pure fantasy.

[PortKells]

The blind limp squirrel has found the nut. I repeat, the blind limp squirrel has found the nut. Over.

[AbbyJr]

The blind limp squirrel has found the nut. I repeat, the blind limp squirrel has found the nut. Over.

Can you please explain what this means?

[Bonovox]

The GEM operational appears to be the outlier right now, but look at the "new" GEM for the same time frame. Much closer to the Euro and GFS with ensemble support. We're in business, I think.

Not sure when the new GEM officially replaces the old model.

[AbbyJr]

The GEM operational appears to be the outlier right now, but look at the "new" GEM for the same time frame. Much closer to the Euro and GFS with ensemble support. We're in business, I think.

Not sure when the new GEM officially replaces the old model.

I didn't know the GEM Parallel was intended to replace the current GEM. That's cool to see Environment Canada upgrade its model.

It'll be interesting to see if we actually get an arctic blast mid month. Perhaps the GFS in all its silliness was on to something earlier? Time will tell. I'm still skeptical though. Anything over 200hrs out is pure fantasy no matter what model you look at. I've seen the Euro get it wrong numerous times within the 7-10 day range. That said, it's promising to see such a substantial shift towards a colder pattern on the recent Euro and EPS runs.

[Bonovox]

I didn't know the GEM Parallel was intended to replace the current GEM. That's cool to see Environment Canada upgrade its model.

It'll be interesting to see if we actually get an arctic blast mid month. Perhaps the GFS in all its silliness was on to something earlier? Time will tell. I'm still skeptical though. Anything over 200hrs out is pure fantasy no matter what model you look at. I've seen the Euro get it wrong numerous times within the 7-10 day range. That said, it's promising to see such a substantial shift towards a colder pattern on the recent Euro and EPS runs.

I think worst case scenario we enter a period of cool-cold onshore flow mid month, which at this time of the year can provide snow down to sea level.

[Catnip]

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_26.png

[PortKells]

Can you please explain what this means?

the gfs is like a blind squirrel that finds a nut. Nito said the squirrel has no limbs and then I think storm typoed that it’s actually limp but he meant it finally has limbs.

[PortKells]

The drunk uncle stayed sober today.

[Typeing3]

FWIW, the recent Euro runs have it getting cold around mid month. I'm still skeptical though as any model over 200hrs out is pure fantasy.

Thinking zonal to cold onshore flow to start for the south coast mid month while arctic air settles into the interior.

[Catnip]

Thinking zonal to cold onshore flow to start for the south coast mid month while arctic air settles into the interior.

Cold onshore flow in December can lead to..... #surprises

[PortKells]

Thinking zonal to cold onshore flow to start for the south coast mid month while arctic air settles into the interior.

A rare set up lately and one I would prefer than getting hit with cold and trying to thread the needle and squeeze out a couple centimetres with a dry airmass, then hoping we get hit with the moisture before it moderates.

Here's the cold pool update:

ens_image.png

[Hawk]

A rare set up lately and one I would prefer than getting hit with cold and trying to thread the needle and squeeze out a couple centimetres with a dry airmass, then hoping we get hit with the moisture before it moderates.

Here's the cold pool update:

ens_image.png

I agree. Pornoman could score huge

[Bonovox]

Cold onshore flow mid month with a couple of marginal snow chances leading into the hammer dropping last week of December. Sign me up for that.