December 2025 Forecasts and Discussions

[Hawk]

in other words, the 850's be like M
instead of W

[stuffradio]

Looks like a ton of with potential of the trough going offshore to bring in more

It's gonna rain

[Hawk]

Silence again..brutal. We know what that means in ModelTown. Oh well. I guess we move on to January soon.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

It's gonna rain

Not to worry Mr. Stuffy during the catastrophic rain event of November 2021 Chilliwack was fine we were cut off from Abby to the east and from the #9 Agassiz turn off overpass to the east.

[PortKells]

Silence again..brutal. We know what that means in ModelTown. Oh well. I guess we move on to January soon.

Let's talk about Dec 17-21, 2022.

After a stressful back and forth model ride, arctic air finally trickles in over the south coast and in some areas drops 15-20 cm. I think I got 17. All of it was champagne powder. Far exceeding most model outputs, it was my personal best arctic front snowfall here by a country mile.

Now the next storm was looking powerful in the models, and it was slated to be a Seattle bullseye. This was a little sad as some folks had missed out on the arctic frot. But as time went on, it became clear that the models were inching things northward and setting us up for a perfect storm.

As time ticked down on the 18th, models started spitting out crazy snowfall rates and depths for just 24 hours away. I remember posting a map where the colour code stopped working because they didn't have a dark enough blue to represent how crazy it was going to be. The funny side bar to this is that Seattle ended up getting table scraps to something that looked like a once in a generation event! But let's not be petty...

I stayed up all night, just basking in it. At around midnight it started just puking snow. Absolutely blasting it down like I hadn't seen before in any sustained way in these parts. Those models had been correct in their extremeness. And it was falling at somewhere around -8C to -10C. It was soft, fluffy and gorgeous. I think I finally went to bed for a couple hours. Shot out of bed at sunrise to go measure - over 50 cm on the ground. Yet, you could just plow through it like you were running through a field of cotton.

The next couple days temperatures hovered between -8 and -12 I believe. The sledding was unbelievable. It was a bit short lived but it was an absolute dream event. Not sure I'll see it again in my lifetime but I'm happy to say I lived here for that one.

[Typeing3]

12z GFS ensembles:

ens_image (16).png

12z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image (17).png

12z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (18).png

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[PortKells]

12z GFS ensembles:
ens_image (16).png
12z ECMWF ensembles:
ens_image (17).png
12z GEM ensembles:
ens_image (18).png




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Lol the Euro ensemble doesn't even come close to negative. This thing is over before it started.

[wetcoast91]

Lol the Euro ensemble doesn't even come close to negative. This thing is over before it started.

Probably a one hit trough that evolves into a rex block/dirty ridge to end the month.

Gonna need a miracle to see the ski season to start before Jan

[AbbyJr]

Probably a one hit trough that evolves into a rex block/dirty ridge to end the month.

Gonna need a miracle to see the ski season to start before Jan

Respectfully disagree. Fairly good signal for a cold onshore flow mid month. Cold rains for lower elevations and lots of mountain snows.

[Catnip]

That is quite the rain storm being shown on the 18Z GFS. Yikes.

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[PortKells]

That is quite the rain storm being shown on the 18Z GFS. Yikes.



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Looks like bad things are coming. Nov 2021 vibes for sure. Would it be worth it for a Dec 2021 though?

[Bonovox]

Silence again..brutal. We know what that means in ModelTown. Oh well. I guess we move on to January soon.

Truthfully, I don't have time to ride the models like I used to. I take a glance once or twice a day and time permitting post a map or two.

[Bonovox]

That is quite the rain storm being shown on the 18Z GFS. Yikes.

Yikes is right. Look at the 10 day total.

[AbbyJr]

Looks like bad things are coming. Nov 2021 vibes for sure. Would it be worth it for a Dec 2021 though?

Looks like a carbon copy of November 14th and 15th 2021. Pineapple Express style AR with no rain shadow for Abbotsford and Victoria.

gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-precip_48hr_mm-5702800.png

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[PortKells]

Yikes is right. Look at the 10 day total.

Catastrophic