December 2025 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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HarrisonSasquatchWx
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Re: December 2025 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

Hound wrote: Thu Dec 11, 2025 3:33 pm Aside from the flooding..
North Shore mountains are in a very sad state!

image-26070-1765478105835.jpg

2025-12-11_103619.jpg
That's quite sad Dog man. :sick: Christmas break is next week the local ski hills won't make any money.. :(
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Re: December 2025 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

HarrisonSasquatchWx wrote: Thu Dec 11, 2025 4:32 pm That's quite sad Dog man. :sick: Christmas break is next week the local ski hills won't make any money.. :(
If things play out as currently modelled, the snow should start piling up.

Just need to get through that 1 last AR.
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

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2025-2026 Snowfall - ZERO.OOcm

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Re: December 2025 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

Catnip wrote: Thu Dec 11, 2025 4:35 pm If things play out as currently modelled, the snow should start piling up.

Just need to get through that 1 last AR.
Let's hope Cat man. :thumbup:
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Re: December 2025 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

12z GFS ensembles:
ens_image.png
12z ECMWF ensembles:
ens_image (1).png
12z GEM ensembles:
ens_image (2).png



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20251212003819-edfc94a4e45134ded586c6fe7fb3a34d1f0cbca1.png
20251212003808-0a9736a257f87dd8d400a150dad4d1a1e2091415.png
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Re: December 2025 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

Although the little Miami River in Harrison Hot Springs doesn't flood or l've never heard of it flooding it's definitely up, nice view of Cheam peak from the lake today.
IMG_20251211_132514138.jpg
IMG_20251211_132553443.jpg
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Last edited by HarrisonSasquatchWx on Thu Dec 11, 2025 4:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: December 2025 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Look at that big block! I still think an arctic blast is coming to the PNW this winter. I really do but I think it will be after Christmas. I've had a really good feeling about January for a while. But I could be wrong. Like what someone suggested on here earlier, we could have an issue with the block ending up too far west and the polar lows ejecting the core of the cold over the water. Hope not but it seems to be a reoccurring theme this winter.

ecmwf-aifs-all-namer-z500_anom-6772000.png
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Re: December 2025 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

AbbyJr wrote: Thu Dec 11, 2025 4:43 pm Look at that big block! I still think an arctic blast is coming to the PNW this winter. I really do but I think it will be after Christmas. I've had a really good feeling about January for a while. But I could be wrong. Like what someone suggested on here earlier, we could have an issue with the block ending up too far west and the polar lows ejecting the core of the cold over the water. Hope not but it seems to be a reoccurring theme this winter.


ecmwf-aifs-all-namer-z500_anom-6772000.png
1981-82 progression. :wave:
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Re: December 2025 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Abby_wx wrote: Thu Dec 11, 2025 2:22 pm That might be a top 10 day for them. It's not often you see Abby perform like that.

Totals from my manual gauge:

Tuesday: 12 mm
Wednesday: 83.9 mm
Thursday: 0.2 mm

Storm total: 96.1 mm

I believe this is my second biggest storm total since I moved to Mission.

The rain never got super heavy here. It was more like a very constant moderate rain. Obviously much worse out towards Hope and down in Skagit/Whatcom areas.
Same here. It was just a long duration moderate rain. I was actually surprised to have recorded 77.2mm at my station given the rain intensity. But it was actually lower than the 86.2mm recorded at YXX so either I was reading low or it was simply accurate. Since I've started keeping my station data records, I've only had three daily rainfalls of 60+mm. One of them was November 14th, 2021 where my station recorded 106mm. Another one was October 19th, 2024 where I had 75.6mm and then of course we have this most recent AR where I recorded 77.2mm for the day. Other than that, I usually top out just under 60mm during a top tier AR. It's just not common for AR's to take the path that bypasses the Olympic Mountains, which causes the rain shadow over Whatcom and the Fraser Valley regions. Thankfully, it's rare because the Sumas Prairie is highly vulnerable to flooding.
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Re: December 2025 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Radar »

tyweather wrote: Thu Dec 11, 2025 3:55 pm Snowfall amounts look great across the province. Looks like a good amount for the Lower Mainland in this run.

Image
If anyone is wondering, don't really pay attention to these maps as they are macro scale and have terrain bleed which don't accurately predict the lowland snow at all.

As they say down south, fake snow.
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Re: December 2025 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Radar »

AbbyJr wrote: Thu Dec 11, 2025 4:43 pm Look at that big block! I still think an arctic blast is coming to the PNW this winter. I really do but I think it will be after Christmas. I've had a really good feeling about January for a while. But I could be wrong. Like what someone suggested on here earlier, we could have an issue with the block ending up too far west and the polar lows ejecting the core of the cold over the water. Hope not but it seems to be a reoccurring theme this winter.


ecmwf-aifs-all-namer-z500_anom-6772000.png
Probably right. The forecast always show this, it shift east more as it gets closer, and usually the cold forecast is diluted to sometimes just an arctic fart. Dynamic weather is rarely something that ever pokes its head out around the coast now. Things are starting to line up to change things to the cool side though.
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Re: December 2025 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Radar »

HarrisonSasquatchWx wrote: Thu Dec 11, 2025 4:32 pm That's quite sad Dog man. :sick: Christmas break is next week the local ski hills won't make any money.. :(
Places like Grouse have substituted the winter revenue with summer revenue more now. Opening of bike park and soon coast type ride down the mountain. There is only so much interest and revenue in two grizzly bears and a logger man show that is on repeat. Maybe Seymour needs to start some summer activities other than the easy one of pay parking.
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Re: December 2025 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

:chilly:
cfs-850th_nb-na-2025121112-372.png
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Re: December 2025 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Radar »

Storm wrote: Thu Dec 11, 2025 5:44 pm :chilly:
cfs-850th_nb-na-2025121112-372.png
Too cold out East for the West to be cold too. Throw it out.
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Re: December 2025 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

Radar wrote: Thu Dec 11, 2025 5:40 pm Places like Grouse have substituted the winter revenue with summer revenue more now. Opening of bike park and soon coast type ride down the mountain. There is only so much interest and revenue in two grizzly bears and a logger man show that is on repeat. Maybe Seymour needs to start some summer activities other than the easy one of pay parking.
Ya that's a good point Mr. Minion man although l do peak in at the Griz cam from time to time to see how they are. :wtf:
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Re: December 2025 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

Radar wrote: Thu Dec 11, 2025 5:46 pm Too cold out East for the West to be cold too. Throw it out.
:lol: Yah not allowed in our new climate rarely a coast to coast Arctic fart like decades ago. :shifty:
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