December 2025 Forecasts and Discussions

[Bonovox]

00z GFS widespread snow on Christmas Day.

In reality, I think this one will be precip intensity dependent for some dynamic cooling.

I keep coming back to this. The GFS is on its own, but the UKMET is close.

All in all, still lots to decide for Christmas Eve and Day. Important to note, this will not be widespread sticking snow. It will depend on elevation and the intensity of precipitation.

[Hawk]

EC update for Abby:
They have basically walked away from the chilly rains/snow in the coming days, to basically just rain. Forecast temps have shot up too. Although it may feel "cooler" lately, that is likely only because it was so warm.

So Abby is looking at an average over the next 4 days of:
H 7c
L2-3c

Meh. Still above normal.

Not even a mention of Snow over the next 4 days now. Wow. Who will win?

[John]

EC update for Abby:
They have basically walked away from the chilly rains/snow in the coming days, to basically just rain. Forecast temps have shot up too. Although it may feel "cooler" lately, that is likely only because it was so warm.

So Abby is looking at an average over the next 4 days of:
H 7c
L2-3c

Meh. Still above normal.

Not even a mention of Snow over the next 4 days now. Wow. Who will win?

Sad reality

[stuffradio]

It’s officially winter!

[Hawk]

Euro update has showers for us now on the 24th/25th. Enjoy your green Christmas!!

[Hawk]

Abby hit a low of +5.1c this morning
and also

[Glacier]

It looks like this is going to be the coldest december in forty two years... another brutally cold morning...

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[PortKells]

The GEM tries to go somewhere. The GFS is just wretched.

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[stuffradio]

It looks like this is going to be the coldest december in forty two years... another brutally cold morning...

Screenshot_20251221_072126_Chrome.jpg

Crazy

[Bonovox]

12z GFS does not back down on Christmas Day snow. It does push the timing back by a few hours with snow showers not beginning until 7pm local.

Again, it is on its own right now. Other models are a degree or two too warm aloft and drier.

[PortKells]

12z GFS does not back down on Christmas Day snow. It does push the timing back by a few hours with snow showers not beginning until 7pm local.

Again, it is on its own right now. Other models are a degree or two too warm aloft and drier.

The Euro is really sticking to it's guns on an arctic intrusion around New years though. Nice agreement with the Canadian ensembles, surprisingly. Something to track at least.

cmc-ensemble-all-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-7355200.png

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-7355200.png

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[John]

The Euro is really sticking to it's guns on an arctic intrusion around New years though. Nice agreement with the Canadian ensembles, surprisingly. Something to track at least.

cmc-ensemble-all-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-7355200.pngecmwf-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-7355200.png

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It’s gonna happen sooner or later you’d think

[John]

Vlad is forecasting a Christmas Eve snowstorm FWIW

[Bonovox]

It’s gonna happen sooner or later you’d think

With the amount of high latitude blocking present so far, all we need is a jet retraction and the block to reorganize favourably. Looks like it is going to happen soon.

[Bonovox]

The 12z Euro gets pretty darn close on Christmas Eve. About a degree or two too warm aloft. Looks better for East Vancouver Island though.