December 2025 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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PortKells
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Re: December 2025 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

16 days away!
gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-8327200.png
Edit: Just kidding...only 12 days away!
gfs-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-8154400.png
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Re: December 2025 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Glacier wrote: Mon Dec 29, 2025 2:38 pm Well I got 5cm worth! Finally!

Snowpack looks really good for most of the province....

screenshot_2025-12-29_at_12.56.23pm_p4255153.jpg
Great news for the drought in the Peace region. Top 10 snowiest December on record for many locales in the southern Peace.
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wetcoast91
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Re: December 2025 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

PortKells wrote: Mon Dec 29, 2025 3:19 pm 16 days away!

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-8327200.png

Edit: Just kidding...only 12 days away!

gfs-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-8154400.png
The Euro weeklies, CFS and clown range op and ensemble runs have been showing this for weeks...and did the same last winter. :lol:
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Re: December 2025 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

12z GFS ensembles:
ens_image (90).png
12z ECMWF ensembles:
ens_image (91).png
12z GEM ensembles:
ens_image (92).png



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20251230000532-1f5af8c223e4bf314e598be8c4545290bc2f5c52.png
20251230000520-30e171aaa14a73d1a38e0e1ed0e59d4fff25fab2.png
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Re: December 2025 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

wetcoast91 wrote: Mon Dec 29, 2025 3:58 pm The Euro weeklies, CFS and clown range op and ensemble runs have been showing this for weeks...and did the same last winter. :lol:
False. They've been showing Alaskan troughing moving south which is like a unicorn event. Having a retrograding ridge is completely different from what's been shown. Surely you must know that?

You come off like you've been hitting the sauce a little early here bud. Still two days until NYE :)
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Re: December 2025 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Granddaddyp2233 »

Must be 5pm somewhere :lol:
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Re: December 2025 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Image
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Re: December 2025 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

To be clear, I'm not saying this will happen. We all know the probabilities around here. I'm saying this is an entirely different and much more promising set up. Nito is a brilliant and hilarious weather enthusiast but I'm going to call him out when he says stuff that's objectively wrong.
Cheers and go :team: snow! :14clown: :flakey:
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Re: December 2025 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hawk »

So weird.. it seems like another low snow year from what I’ve seen up there compared to other years :think:
Looking forward to our first 3 day stretch of sun and 20c++ 8-)
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Re: December 2025 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hawk »

The next pineapple push has given rain all the way into Smithers now
:dance: :dance:
Looking forward to our first 3 day stretch of sun and 20c++ 8-)
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Re: December 2025 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

The Euro AI model has made a move to build heights into Alaska, potentially opening the door for us.
Gonna be watching tonight's runs closely. There's still hope folks!
ecmwf-aifs-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-8327200.png
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Re: December 2025 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

PortKells wrote: Mon Dec 29, 2025 5:22 pm The Euro AI model has made a move to build heights into Alaska, potentially opening the door for us.
Gonna be watching tonight's runs closely. There's still hope folks!

ecmwf-aifs-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-8327200.png
:wish: :wish: :wish:
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

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Re: December 2025 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

PortKells wrote: Mon Dec 29, 2025 5:22 pm The Euro AI model has made a move to build heights into Alaska, potentially opening the door for us.
Gonna be watching tonight's runs closely. There's still hope folks!

ecmwf-aifs-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-8327200.png
Looks January 2014ish...
B9lxkKPh66.png
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Re: December 2025 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Catnip wrote: Mon Dec 29, 2025 5:24 pm :wish: :wish: :wish:
Hope is not just a town for fast food and gas fill ups! #HOPE
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Re: December 2025 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Glacier »

Hawk wrote: Mon Dec 29, 2025 5:08 pm So weird.. it seems like another low snow year from what I’ve seen up there compared to other years :think:
I suspect they are low sample size so probably huge margin of error. Too early into the season to make definitive statements probably.
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