February 2026 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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PortKells
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Re: February 2026 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

wetcoast91 wrote: Wed Feb 04, 2026 8:37 am Super +ENSO, with continued -QBO/+TNH will deliver another brutal winter to the Great Lakes and continued snow droughts out West with even warmer departures here for DJF. There's no doubt we are seeing a seismic shift in our climate right now...whether this is a semi-permanent shift or a blip in the timeline remains to be seen.

It would get more people talking if this impressive winter heat were impacting the Eastern CONUS.
I'd bet way more money that nobody gets a good winter with an El Nino like that, if it were to come to fruition. 2015/2016 I don't think anybody got a winter that year in NA.
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Re: February 2026 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Morning minima. Look at Vancouver Harbour. :blowtor:

Abbotsford 6.1°C
Agassiz 7.5°C
Burns Bog 5.0°C
Hope 5.0°C
Langley 6.1°C
MBY 6.9˚C
Pitt Meadows 6.7°C
Squamish 4.5°C
Vancouver Harbour 9.2°C
Vancouver YVR 5.6°C
West Vancouver 8.8°C
White Rock 8.2°C
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: February 2026 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

PortKells wrote: Wed Feb 04, 2026 9:12 am I'd bet way more money that nobody gets a good winter with an El Nino like that, if it were to come to fruition. 2015/2016 I don't think anybody got a winter that year in NA.
The US eastern seaboard (ex. Washington DC, NYC, etc) had a historic blizzard in 2015-16. January 22-24, 2016 to be exact.

JFK airport and Central Park in NYC recorded 77cm and 70cm in one day ( :shock: ) respectively, which smashed their all time records for largest single-day snowfall.
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Re: February 2026 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Typeing3 wrote: Wed Feb 04, 2026 9:17 am The US eastern seaboard (ex. Washington DC, NYC, etc) had a historic blizzard in 2015-16. January 22-24, 2016 to be exact.

JFK airport and Central Park in NYC recorded 77cm and 70cm in one day ( :shock: ) respectively, which smashed their all time records for largest single-day snowfall.
I guess I'm thinking of 2016/17. However despite that blizzard I don't think that was anywhere near something they would consider a strong winter out there, when you look at winters like this one in comparison.
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Re: February 2026 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

PortKells wrote: Wed Feb 04, 2026 9:19 am I guess I'm thinking of 2016/17. However despite that blizzard I don't think that was anywhere near something they would consider a strong winter out there, when you look at winters like this one in comparison.
2016-17 was the coldest winter for the PNW overall since 1992-93.

2015-16 was a very warm winter overall for the entire continent. On the flip side I'm sure winter weather lovers would happily take a winter torch if it meant experiencing a record snowstorm, like the eastern US did. 50-80cm in one day is insanity! Also, 2015-16 did follow two winters of epic cold and snow for the eastern CONUS.
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Re: February 2026 Forecasts and Discussions

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Typeing3 wrote: Wed Feb 04, 2026 9:33 am 2016-17 was the coldest winter for the PNW overall since 1992-93.

2015-16 was a very warm winter overall for the entire continent. On the flip side I'm sure winter weather lovers would happily take a winter torch if it meant experiencing a record snowstorm, like the eastern US did. 50-80cm in one day is insanity! Also, 2015-16 did follow two winters of epic cold and snow for the eastern CONUS.
I meant 2016/17 standing out as a warm winter in the East/middle of the continent. Regardless, my bigger point is that I don't think a super El Nino will favour anybody. A more average El Nino, maybe. We will see very soon apparently.
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Re: February 2026 Forecasts and Discussions

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PortKells wrote: Wed Feb 04, 2026 11:02 am I meant 2016/17 standing out as a warm winter in the East/middle of the continent. Regardless, my bigger point is that I don't think a super El Nino will favour anybody. A more average El Nino, maybe. We will see very soon apparently.
Yeah, 2016-17 was quite warm for the eastern CONUS. Was cold across the northern tier, intermountain west, and PNW. Also very wet for California with many ARs due to the suppressed jet.
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Re: February 2026 Forecasts and Discussions

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Typeing3 wrote: Wed Feb 04, 2026 11:08 am Yeah, 2016-17 was quite warm for the eastern CONUS. Was cold across the northern tier, intermountain west, and PNW. Also very wet for California with many ARs due to the suppressed jet.
That was just a fantastic winter. But it shows you how much the opposite coast needs to get screwed over to get a good one in your region of NA.
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Re: February 2026 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

:dancepine: Agassiz, Vancouver Harbour, West Vancouver, and White Rock all reporting temps of 13˚C this hour.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: February 2026 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hawk »

i wonder how warm it will get over the next 48. Im guessing tops of:

17.1 Abby
13.9 YVR

:think:
Looking forward to our first 3 day stretch of sun and 20c++ 8-)
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Re: February 2026 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by tyweather »

Weekly temperature departure last week.
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Why not try cycling to work, grocery store, anywhere!
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Re: February 2026 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

PortKells wrote: Wed Feb 04, 2026 12:09 pm That was just a fantastic winter. But it shows you how much the opposite coast needs to get screwed over to get a good one in your region of NA.
There are certain cases where it can work out for both coasts, although there is more volatility with areas further to the south.
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Re: February 2026 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: Wed Feb 04, 2026 1:09 pm :dancepine: Agassiz, Vancouver Harbour, West Vancouver, and White Rock all reporting temps of 13˚C this hour.
Cherry blossom, pollen, flower, and grass mowing season is upon us! :alert:
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Re: February 2026 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Hawk wrote: Wed Feb 04, 2026 1:12 pm i wonder how warm it will get over the next 48. Im guessing tops of:

17.1 Abby
13.9 YVR

:think:
Already in the low 20s in the cascade foothills. +20C would not surprise me in some valley spots tomorrow. It may feel like the mid 20's with the humidex.
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Re: February 2026 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

wetcoast91 wrote: Wed Feb 04, 2026 2:49 pm Already in the low 20s in the cascade foothills. +20C would not surprise me in some valley spots tomorrow. It may feel like the mid 20's with the humidex.
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Current conditions in Harrison Hot Springs:
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/ ... wx_pwsdash
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