February 2026 Forecasts and Discussions

[tyweather]

A nearly snowless winter for the South Coast lowlands—so far. The above is a quick summary of the snowless winter situation this season relative to some climatology. This looks at climatological winter spanning December through February. Seasons with no measurable snow may have still had some snowflakes—it is just that they did not stick, resulting in what is called a trace amount. For example, lowland snow has in fact occurred over parts of the South Coast during the 2025-26 season, but so far has not amounted to anything measurable at Vancouver International Airport (YVR), Victoria or Abbotsford. Zero measurable snowfall years seem to be most likely during El Niño phases of the ENSO cycle, as shown in the table at the upper left. However, the presence of an El Niño does not guarantee a zero snow winter, as evidenced by some examples in the table on the lower left. A La Niña is currently underway, an ENSO state typically more supportive of snowfall than El Niño, but here there is no guarantee of lowland snow as evidenced by the 1944-45 season. The current ENSO forecast suggests that an El Niño could be present during the 2026-27 storm season. Thus, there is a chance for two winter seasons in a row with zero measurable snow—an unprecedented event in the annals of YVR climatology. However, the current season is not done yet, and the forecast points to the possibility of snow starting around this weekend—see Short term, Long term and Impact weather above—so the zero snowfall winter could be eliminated soon. And, snow can still fall during El Niños, so even if winter 2025-26 ends up snowless, getting that second season in a row is not guaranteed.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

A nearly snowless winter for the South Coast lowlands—so far. The above is a quick summary of the snowless winter situation this season relative to some climatology. This looks at climatological winter spanning December through February. Seasons with no measurable snow may have still had some snowflakes—it is just that they did not stick, resulting in what is called a trace amount. For example, lowland snow has in fact occurred over parts of the South Coast during the 2025-26 season, but so far has not amounted to anything measurable at Vancouver International Airport (YVR), Victoria or Abbotsford. Zero measurable snowfall years seem to be most likely during El Niño phases of the ENSO cycle, as shown in the table at the upper left. However, the presence of an El Niño does not guarantee a zero snow winter, as evidenced by some examples in the table on the lower left. A La Niña is currently underway, an ENSO state typically more supportive of snowfall than El Niño, but here there is no guarantee of lowland snow as evidenced by the 1944-45 season. The current ENSO forecast suggests that an El Niño could be present during the 2026-27 storm season. Thus, there is a chance for two winter seasons in a row with zero measurable snow—an unprecedented event in the annals of YVR climatology. However, the current season is not done yet, and the forecast points to the possibility of snow starting around this weekend—see Short term, Long term and Impact weather above—so the zero snowfall winter could be eliminated soon. And, snow can still fall during El Niños, so even if winter 2025-26 ends up snowless, getting that second season in a row is not guaranteed.

But EL Neetzzz said no till 2028. Thead.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Will WPro make an appearance.

[Typeing3]

Will WPro make an appearance.

Not worth it for slushfalls!

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Not worth it for slushfalls!

Perhaps but can't we have a slush blizzard Tslush.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

WB Van man.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

We need the 18z drunkle uncle to appear.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Your elevation there Abby Sr. is making for a greenhouse effect with the inversion. We struggle to make it to double digits here in the Harrison Lake valley l notice.

[Typeing3]

We need the 18z drunkle uncle to appear.

Cold rain!

I'm sure the maps show plenty of phanton snow though...

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Cold rain!

I'm sure the maps show plenty of phanton snow though...

Great that works Tchilly lots of time to morph into slush, wet snow or 12c rain l suppose.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Another mild afternoon around the Lower Mainland.

Abbotsford 10.8°C
Agassiz 11.7°C
Burns Bog 9.8°C
Hope 9.2°C
Langley 11.2°C
Pitt Meadows 11.2°C
Squamish 10.5°C
Vancouver Harbour 9.2°C
Vancouver YVR 8.1°C
West Vancouver 9.4°C
White Rock 9.9°C

[AbbyJr]

ecmwf-aifs-ensemble-CYXX-indiv_tmp-0832800.png

ecmwf-ensemble-CYXX-indiv_tmp-0811200.png

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

ecmwf-aifs-ensemble-CYXX-indiv_tmp-0832800.png

ecmwf-ensemble-CYXX-indiv_tmp-0811200.png

OMG Abby Jr. it looks awesome.

[AbbyJr]

A nearly snowless winter for the South Coast lowlands—so far. The above is a quick summary of the snowless winter situation this season relative to some climatology. This looks at climatological winter spanning December through February. Seasons with no measurable snow may have still had some snowflakes—it is just that they did not stick, resulting in what is called a trace amount. For example, lowland snow has in fact occurred over parts of the South Coast during the 2025-26 season, but so far has not amounted to anything measurable at Vancouver International Airport (YVR), Victoria or Abbotsford. Zero measurable snowfall years seem to be most likely during El Niño phases of the ENSO cycle, as shown in the table at the upper left. However, the presence of an El Niño does not guarantee a zero snow winter, as evidenced by some examples in the table on the lower left. A La Niña is currently underway, an ENSO state typically more supportive of snowfall than El Niño, but here there is no guarantee of lowland snow as evidenced by the 1944-45 season. The current ENSO forecast suggests that an El Niño could be present during the 2026-27 storm season. Thus, there is a chance for two winter seasons in a row with zero measurable snow—an unprecedented event in the annals of YVR climatology. However, the current season is not done yet, and the forecast points to the possibility of snow starting around this weekend—see Short term, Long term and Impact weather above—so the zero snowfall winter could be eliminated soon. And, snow can still fall during El Niños, so even if winter 2025-26 ends up snowless, getting that second season in a row is not guaranteed.

Some recent examples of El Niño's that produced a cold snap with significant low elevation snowfall would be 2006/07, 2018/19, and 2023/24. Granted, 2006/07 and 2018/19 were weak El Niño's (almost a warm neutral) and the cold snap in February 2019 and January 2024 was SSW induced. There was also a SSW in 1968/69, which was a moderate El Niño but it was also a -QBO along with 2018/19 and 2023/24. From my understanding, SSW events are more common during the negative phase of the QBO. While there are always exceptions because weather is weather, in most cases it would likely take a SSW to send arctic air into the PNW during a moderate or strong El Niño. Unfortunately, next winter will likely be an El Niño/+QBO, which will likely add additional obstacles for us to get arctic air into our regions. Not impossible, but another dud winter is definitely possible.

[John]

Chris Doyle is forecasting snow Monday, he is usually wrong so we shall see