February 2026 Forecasts and Discussions

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

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Will this bring an appearance from WPro.

[PortKells]

surely we can get an inch of this:

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[AbbyJr]

surely we can get an inch of this:

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If nothing else, we've had a few entertaining model runs this winter.

[Typeing3]

Too much phantom snow on that run. Throw it out!

[PortKells]

More phantoms

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[PortKells]

If nothing else, we've had a few entertaining model runs this winter.

We know from the past that to get 20 cm here you need to get models showing 80 cm. It's the way she goes. Especially with late Feb sun angles.

[AbbyJr]

We know from the past that to get 20 cm here you need to get models showing 80 cm. It's the way she goes. Especially with late Feb sun angles.

It's really unfortunate that the trajectory of the polar lobe is not ideal for dropping pure arctic air into the PNW regions. Otherwise, we would be likely looking at a major multi day snowfall event as the models want to stall a surface low offshore in an ideal location. For example, the 12Z AIFS showed epic amounts of snow but it was mostly phantom snow as the temperatures were modelled to remain slightly above freezing. Bring in more cold and something on the scale of February 2017 or dare I say March 1951 could be on the table. But that scenario is highly unlikely as the majority of model runs suggest a cold onshore flow at best and that's not cold enough for a major snowfall event. But maybe some marginal slushy snowfalls?

[John]

It's really unfortunate that the trajectory of the polar lobe is not ideal for dropping pure arctic air into the PNW regions. Otherwise, we would be likely looking at a major multi day snowfall event as the models want to stall a surface low offshore in an ideal location. Looking at the 12Z AIFS, which showed epic amounts of snow. However, it was mostly phantom snow as temperatures were modelled slightly above freezing. Bring in more cold and something on the scale of February 2017 or dare I say March 1951 could be on the table. But that scenario is highly unlikely as the majority of runs and AIFS ensemble members suggest a cold onshore flow with not enough cold for a major snowfall event. But maybe some marginal slushy snowfalls?

Is ok bud I am to old for this Sh*t

[PortKells]

It's really unfortunate that the trajectory of the polar lobe is not ideal for dropping pure arctic air into the PNW regions. Otherwise, we would be likely looking at a major multi day snowfall event as the models want to stall a surface low offshore in an ideal location. For example, the 12Z AIFS showed epic amounts of snow but it was mostly phantom snow as the temperatures were modelled to remain slightly above freezing. Bring in more cold and something on the scale of February 2017 or dare I say March 1951 could be on the table. But that scenario is highly unlikely as the majority of model runs suggest a cold onshore flow at best and that's not cold enough for a major snowfall event. But maybe some marginal slushy snowfalls?

True, although a few runs have teased at a true blast. Tonight's GEM for example. The AIFS is super accurate in 500 mb terms but I'm curious if the 850's are underdone and things will trend slightly better as we close in.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Is ok bud I am to old for this Sh*t

C'mon John enjoy the ride your no older than l'am.

[wetcoast91]

GFS/Euro converging on a late Dec setup. Trough too far offshore. Cool rain with maybe mixed precip next Tues. Cold building up North...where it will go....who knows.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

GFS/Euro converging on a late Dec setup. Trough too far offshore. Cool rain with maybe mixed precip next Tues. Cold building up North...where it will go....who knows.

East is my guess just the way things have gone this year.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Plausible. At least it’s not something that can be summarily dismissed as phantom snow. And it’s within the five-day window window of believability.

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ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-t2m_c-1264800.png

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[Hawk]

06z gfs update:
Lots of cold rain/Mtn snow for #theendofFeb

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

GFS/Euro converging on a late Dec setup. Trough too far offshore. Cool rain with maybe mixed precip next Tues. Cold building up North...where it will go....who knows.

Talk about your clown range model riding!