January 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

[AbbyJr]

Totally disagree. The Cold pool builds again in most models. GEFS and gfs ensembles have hinted at a dive in the clown range. The 12Z operational looks like torching but primed to freeze. I think with some luck were primed for 2.0.

Yes I agree. Models look primed for another blast of arctic air at some point in early-mid February. You can see the signals in the ensembles and even some operation models. There is plenty of cold on our side of the pole. Alaska is going back in the deep freeze. We just need to bring it down south into BC and the PNW. This will likely happen again in February. Though its hard to say whether it will be transitory or lock in for 2 weeks. Either way, winter is likely not done yet. In all honesty, the 500mb pattern shown in the long range looks rather similar to what it looked like shortly prior to the recent January blast with the vortex in Alaska allowing the arctic air to build while simultaneously a strong ridge develops offshore. Eventually it amplifies and knocks out the vortex allowing the frigid air in Alaska to dive south into BC and the PNW. As long as we don't get a -NAO, which often sends the cold east, we are primed for another legit arctic blast. That tanked PNA in January did wonders for us once it amplified. Signals in the models suggest this happening once again in February.

[Canada Goose]

New 1991-2020 averages will be quite a bit warmer than those previous for the South Coast. Note how BC has experienced some of the greatest warming out of the entire country, while the eastern prairies and Ontario have cooled a touch.

What is very impressive, it's that the difference is only between 1981-90 and 2011-19. Ten years or so.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Yes I agree. Models look primed for another blast of arctic air at some point in early-mid February. You can see the signals in the ensembles and even some operation models. There is plenty of cold on our side of the pole. Alaska is going back in the deep freeze. We just need to bring it down south into BC and the PNW. This will likely happen again in February. Though its hard to say whether it will be transitory or lock in for 2 weeks. Either way, winter is likely not done yet. In all honesty, the 500mb pattern shown in the long range looks rather similar to what it looked like shortly prior to the recent January blast with the vortex in Alaska allowing the arctic air to build while simultaneously a strong ridge develops offshore. Eventually it amplifies and knocks out the vortex allowing the frigid air in Alaska to dive south into BC and the PNW. As long as we don't get a -NAO, which often sends the cold east, we are primed for another legit arctic blast. That tanked PNA in January did wonders for us once it amplified. Signals in the models suggest this happening once again in February.

The PNA is suppose to go negative again Jr. as well as the WPO according to the AF Phil say's early Feb. might be rushing it but he agrees more cold for us. What would the WPO do if it went negative as well Feb 2017?

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

That is a savage forecast. Let's hope we get another taste of something in February.

Well they don't call it blue Monday for nothing I suppose.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Ah a man of reason what does the WPO going negative mean El Nito, no philism plz.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Will take some sunshine at least!

Did you come out of your den too Slyty? I came out to have a bowl of Elf on the shelf cereal when super store brought more in I bought 4 more boxes of course the wife thought I was an idiot or was it for circling the calendar back in Dec. it's currently 3.6c in south Sardis my low was 1.4c the snow cover is helping to keep it cool out here it would appear.

[Weather101]

I think winter is over besides maybe a slush fest that's just my opinion tho. Never been a big fan of mid February snow it usually melts right away in the sun and harder to get temperatures as cold as you can in December or January.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

I think winter is over besides maybe a slush fest that's just my opinion tho. Never been a big fan of mid February snow it usually melts right away in the sun and harder to get temperatures as cold as you can in December or January.

Yes it appears to stick better at night in Feb. or you need it cloudy all day or very cold like last Feb. which would be a long shot.

[Weather101]

Ah a man of reason what does the WPO going negative mean El Nito, no philism plz.

I respect Phil a lot but I can understand how it can be so hard to grasp what he is trying to get across! He sometimes doesn't explain what he is saying but he is very smart.

[Weather101]

Yes it appears to stick better at night in Feb. or you need it cloudy all day or very cold like last Feb. which would be a long shot.

100 percent agreed the longer days don't help at that point.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Doesn't get more depressing than this:

2020-01-20_072525.jpg

It could be like Rick Mercer plus 1c thing where the sunshine is always showing in the long range but never get's there, that would be the west coast equivalent.

[Weather101]

I will add in tho that the models look better then I would expect after just having a cold snap

[Weather101]

112 guests active in last 24 hours, Would be nice if some of you made a account and join us !!!

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

I respect Phil a lot but I can understand how it can be so hard to grasp what he is trying to get across! He sometimes doesn't explain what he is saying but he is very smart.

Yup I get a headache reading his posts sometimes have to re read and then take 2 adt83 (which seem to be missing) and my vitog. Gumps??? cloudy gloomy day out here in south Sardis most central valley members are snoring away in their dens.

[Typeing3]

Yes I agree. Models look primed for another blast of arctic air at some point in early-mid February. You can see the signals in the ensembles and even some operation models. There is plenty of cold on our side of the pole. Alaska is going back in the deep freeze. We just need to bring it down south into BC and the PNW. This will likely happen again in February. Though its hard to say whether it will be transitory or lock in for 2 weeks. Either way, winter is likely not done yet. In all honesty, the 500mb pattern shown in the long range looks rather similar to what it looked like shortly prior to the recent January blast with the vortex in Alaska allowing the arctic air to build while simultaneously a strong ridge develops offshore. Eventually it amplifies and knocks out the vortex allowing the frigid air in Alaska to dive south into BC and the PNW. As long as we don't get a -NAO, which often sends the cold east, we are primed for another legit arctic blast. That tanked PNA in January did wonders for us once it amplified. Signals in the models suggest this happening once again in February.

A -NAO can work for us in the PNW. However, it has to be in link with a -PNA.

Such a combination is fairly rare but if they both flip negative at once, the cold will lock over our region for a long time...see January 1969 as an example of this.