AbbyJr wrote: ↑Mon Feb 15, 2021 10:06 pm
I fully respect the education and skill of the EC meteorologists. However, some of their decisions on when to issue and end warnings as well as their warning criteria is perplexing.
I really have to suspect something institutional. I.e. the scientists are under coercion of some sort to produce certain results, the science be damned. I suspect something similar about why some forecasts on this side of the border (particularly the two most recent snow events) have been so ridiculous.
It just makes no sense to forecast 1 to 3 inches of snow when
both the Euro and GFS have been
consistently modeling 6 to 8. It is obvious to me that when both these models consistently agree on something, it almost always verifies, and I can’t fathom that it is not obvious to the staff meteorologists at forecasting agencies.
In the NWS’s case, I suspect a policy of punishing forecasters severely for false alarms, and punishing them less severely or not at all for missed warnings. Perhaps EC has the contrary policy; it would explain why they seem so eager to issue snowfall warnings for tenuous set-ups.
It's called clown range for a reason.
And then we have January 2020 where Chilliwack got 20cm of snow with the arctic front and no snowfall warning at all. 
