November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Typeing3
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

wetcoast91 wrote: Mon Nov 15, 2021 7:15 pm 1935 wasnt particuarly bad along the mountains. It was an overrunning event that dropped lots of snow and then lots of rain.

The 1948 flood discussed where due to a mega melt freshet across the province. However this mostly impacted the major riverways like the Fraser River.

This AR event was particuarly impactful because it impacted many drainage basins over extended period and stressed smaller creeks and rivers to their limits. I believe the MOT designed these bridges to withstand flooding seen during the KVR construction near Othello in the 1910s.
There was snow on the ground prior to the overrunning event in 1935. Not to mention the intense arctic blast.

It was particularly bad along the mountains. Coquitlam Lake had 531mm of rain in 4 days. Seymour Creek in North Vancouver had 479mm in the same timeframe. That's way worse than what we just saw.

I'm not trying to downplay this event, but it definitely needs context. Within the historical record we've had several AR events that were even more anomalous.
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Antares »

Seems like the front just blew through here. Very strong winds driving the rain sideways. What a sight in this dry climate. :clap:

Next month: Big snows and cold for BC :clap:
It always snows in December in the Kootenays :clap:
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by drbils »

What are some estimates to get some of these highways reopened? I’m seeing comments on social media about this worsening supply chain issues - will we have an issue with essential goods if these roads are closed for weeks?
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

drbils wrote: Mon Nov 15, 2021 7:52 pm What are some estimates to get some of these highways reopened? I’m seeing comments on social media about this worsening supply chain issues - will we have an issue with essential goods if these roads are closed for weeks?
l saw at least 20 trucks lined up just before the hiway 9 turn off @ Bridal falls eastbound there's your supply chain already impacted who know"s how many on the other side bound for the lowermainland.
And just think if your in Hope supplies like food gas will start to suffer.
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Mattman »

drbils wrote: Mon Nov 15, 2021 7:52 pm What are some estimates to get some of these highways reopened? I’m seeing comments on social media about this worsening supply chain issues - will we have an issue with essential goods if these roads are closed for weeks?
I was 11--almost 12--when I lived in Kelowna and the Connector opened. Prior to that route, Kelowna was a backwater. There was no such thing as a "day trip" to the coast as it took 4-5 hours to merely get to Chilliwack on a good day. Fast forward 31 years, and that area is more dependant on those highways (#5 & #97C) than ever. So I think the supply chain issue will be more of a problem in the Thompson and Okanagan than on the Lower Mainland. My folks in Kelowna told me that there is panic buying going on as it's settling in what they're up against.

Liking the pictures, videos, and first-hand accounts. This forum is more up to speed than legacy media.
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

Has John checked in l worry about him in these conditions.
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hound »

SouthSardiswx wrote: Mon Nov 15, 2021 8:24 pm Has John checked in l worry about him in these conditions.
Umm.. ya. I just filmed him out near the highway! :crazy:

https://twitter.com/realkajamae/status/ ... 9308462082
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

John wrote: Mon Nov 15, 2021 5:47 pm Don’t want to make this too political but this Mike Farneworth guy minister of something doesn’t have a clue what he’s talking about pretty embarrassing.
Ah good l didn't notice John's post :lol: :lolsign: :goodpost:
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

Hound wrote: Mon Nov 15, 2021 8:26 pm Umm.. ya. I just filmed him out near the highway :crazy:
:lol:
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Abby_wx »

:dragon:

Fall/Winter 2025/26
Low min: -5.0C (Feb 20th)
Low max: 2.8C (Feb 19th)
Snowfall: 3 cm
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

Typeing3 wrote: Mon Nov 15, 2021 5:34 pm 18z GFS

Day 9.5
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_38.png

day 11:
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_44 (1).png
Nooo, not another AR event absolutely crazy.
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Assume Hwy 1 will reopen long before Hwy 5. When it does, there will be tremendous traffic pressures on the route. It was bad enough in the 70s and 80s when it was the primary artery linking the coast with the interior and to the rest of Canada. The Coq opening alleviated those problems (though most of the towns in the canyon have suffered since then).
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hound »

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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hound »

Abby_wx wrote: Mon Nov 15, 2021 8:29 pm :o
Wow, how can it flood across the highway? :shock:
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hound »

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