November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[Mattman]

If an event is to show up at 300, 250, 200 etc hours then it usually has to show up at 384 first. But I need to see 3 or 4 runs like this before I'm even remotely intrigued. I know very little meteorology but watching models for several years now you pick up on clues, patterns, etc.

I remember that it was either or both the 12z and 18z GFS on June 11 that first showed the heat dome in the clown range. It was rightfully laughed off that Friday. It appeared for a few runs, then disappeared for a few days before all of them latched on to that absurd solution. So even of subsequent runs don't show that cold solution in early December, it might not be off the table. We'll see. I think it's performed better than the EURO when it comes to greatly anomalous solutions that verify. Even if it's back-and-forth over the next few days, I think that''s something to take seriously.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

I remember that it was either or both the 12z and 18z GFS on June 11 that first showed the heat dome in the clown range. It was rightfully laughed off that Friday. It appeared for a few runs, then disappeared for a few days before all of them latched on to that absurd solution. So even of subsequent runs don't show that cold solution in early December, it might not be off the table. We'll see. I think it's performed better than the EURO when it comes to greatly anomalous solutions that verify. Even if it's back-and-forth over the next few days, I think that''s something to take seriously.

Which model showed this last AR event first?

[AbbyJr]

Which model showed this last AR event first?

I think it was the GFS. I could be wrong though.

[wetcoast91]

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2021/11/ ... lobal.html

How about a +50C heat, a coastal tornado and flooding within a 5 month span? Sounds normal to you Cliff???

[Typeing3]

Are you saying beware of getting a crap sandwich again? Because I'm very ready for that. Watching long term models and ensembles is pure entertainment. Same as Watching the Canucks. aka probably a mistake but irresistible regardless. Also...a welcome distraction from our brutal current situation.

Actually none of those winters were crap but they weren't great either. All had active jets with plentiful precip and mountain snow, along with periodic lowland snow scattered throughout the season. Some arctic air too and some events were very good.

Overall though it's fairly average. Maybe even above average if you're judging the composite against 21st century PNW winter climate expectations.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

I think it was the GFS. I could be wrong though.

Sorry Jr.man l see you mentioned it in an earlier post.

[Typeing3]

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2021/11/ ... lobal.html

How about a +50C heat, a coastal tornado and flooding within a 5 month span? Sounds normal to you Cliff???

The article points out the AR event we just had shouldn't be attributed to climate change. And the data/evidence he cites proves the point. Which actually should be fairly obvious especially for people with knowledge of historic weather events in our region considering there are precedents with regards to storm totals.

Now if we're talking about damage, this event was unprecedented. Of course there were other contributing factors like the preceding snowpack, increased population, increased infrastructure, aging infrastructure, burn scars, etc.

What are your thoughts on the Nov 1909 AR event? https://forums.bcstorms.ca/viewtopic.php?f=201&t=1451

What about January 1935?

How about Nov 1990?
https://forums.bcstorms.ca/viewtopic.php?f=201&t=1441

What about October 2003?

The rainfall totals throughout our region were extreme with the recent event. But not unprecedented in the least, even in the relatively short period of record.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Lock it in and throw away the key



gfs-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-8900000.png

After analyzing this again l just had to Kells.

[wetcoast91]

The article points out the AR event we just had shouldn't be attributed to climate change. And the data/evidence he cites proves the point. Which actually should be fairly obvious especially for people with knowledge of historic weather events in our region considering there are precedents with regards to storm totals.

Now if we're talking about damage, this event was unprecedented. Of course there were other contributing factors like the preceding snowpack, increased population, increased infrastructure, aging infrastructure, burn scars, etc.

What are your thoughts on the Nov 1909 AR event? https://forums.bcstorms.ca/viewtopic.php?f=201&t=1451

What about January 1935?

How about Nov 1990?
https://forums.bcstorms.ca/viewtopic.php?f=201&t=1441

What about October 2003?

The rainfall totals throughout our region were extreme with the recent event. But not unprecedented in the least, even in the relatively short period of record.

One unprecedented event in a given time period is not to be confused with series of unprecedented events that have occured within a year that killed large portions of forests and vegitation that led to these conditions that hastened slope and soil erosion. Extreme heat, lengthy dry spell and a very wet period in a span of few months. This should raise alarm bells.

I could forgive anyone else making this write up but Cliff Mass is a climate change denier.

[PortKells]

One unprecedented event in a given time period is not to be confused with series of unprecedented events that have occured within a year that killed large portions of forests and vegitation that led to these conditions that hastened slope and soil erosion. Extreme heat, lengthy dry spell and a very wet period in a span of few months. This should raise alarm bells.

I could forgive anyone else making this write up but Cliff Mass is a climate change denier.

It doesn't matter any more. The climate situation is so far past controllable we might as well just say you won cliff. enjoy the fast deteriorating situation you helped exacerbate by minimizing it at every possible turn.

As you said, the heat and fires not to mention deforestation were big factors here. Trying to leave that out shows a lack of expertise. After all he is a meteorologist, not a climatologist.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

In the end, I opted for the Ambient, simply because, I already have a satellite mast in place (minus the dish), where my old, dying station resides. Mounting a different sensor suite seemed the easiest transition.

Post a pic. once it's installed M1.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Hi John. how's your moat holding out.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Next should be the traditional GooFiuS 360 hour rug pull plus the next AR event showing 300mm of rain.

[Typeing3]

One unprecedented event in a given time period is not to be confused with series of unprecedented events that have occured within a year that killed large portions of forests and vegitation that led to these conditions that hastened slope and soil erosion. Extreme heat, lengthy dry spell and a very wet period in a span of few months. This should raise alarm bells.

I could forgive anyone else making this write up but Cliff Mass is a climate change denier.

Climate change is real.

Just seems like these days people are too quick to attribute every single extreme weather event to climate change. Yes, forest fires during the summer lead to slope instability and burn scars and undoubtedly were some of the contributors to the damage on #1 and #5. But other contributors included preceding snowpack, population increase, infrastructure increase and aging infrastructure. These are also important factors in what made the damage associated with this storm much worse compared with historical events on a similar scale, rainfall-wise.

[PortKells]

Gefs is trying as per usual.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-8856800.png