November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Storm
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

Not good.

12z GFS
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_fh30-72.gif
12z ICON
icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_fh27-87.gif
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Last edited by Storm on Fri Nov 26, 2021 8:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Rubus_Leucodermis
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

PortKells wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 7:22 am That run was just disgusting, within 200 hours. Either it's a major outlier (likely) or maybe its picking up a long range trend just early.

Also that ridiculously cold frame I posted is on my birthday. Make it be true! :clap:
Could happen! I got 23 cm on my birthday in 2019 (and the models did start hinting I could score like that a good week in advance).
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Bonovox
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

All things considered, although wet, the 12Z GFS wasn’t bad for rain. Could’ve been much worse.
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Spring/Summer :sick: Fall/Winter :thumbup:

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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Hawk wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 7:16 am It's coming boys and girls..like my buttee Weeknd would say...
"I feel it coming" :lol: :lol:
:clap:
I agree… just too many analogs between this season and several ones that turned out to be epic, and now there’s the hints popping up in the models. A bigger question is when it happens. May be a few rug pulls on the way to the winterfest.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Bonovox wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 8:07 am All things considered, although wet, the 12Z GFS wasn’t bad for rain. Could’ve been much worse.
The ICON on the other hand…
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

Bonovox wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 8:08 am The ICON on the other hand…
Add the snow melt to that.
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Bonovox wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 8:07 am All things considered, although wet, the 12Z GFS wasn’t bad for rain. Could’ve been much worse.
And there you have it: this season has been so rainy that now anything under 100 mm is now considered not too terribly wet.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 8:10 am And there you have it: this season has been so rainy that now anything under 100 mm is now considered not too terribly wet.
Yup. Recency bias.
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Bonovox wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 8:07 am All things considered, although wet, the 12Z GFS wasn’t bad for rain. Could’ve been much worse.
That would be relatively normal pineapple amounts. Hopefully it's that and not whatever the ICON is smoking.
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hawk »

Bonovox wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 8:08 am The ICON on the other hand…
:shock: :shock:
Looking forward to our first 3 day stretch of sun and 20c++ 8-)
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by John »

Bonovox wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 8:08 am The ICON on the other hand…
What about the RGEM? It was close with the last event….
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Just wait until all those maps start showing locally heavy snowfalls instead of rainfalls.

#yearofextremes

:shh: :shh: :shh:
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

I could definitely see blocking rearranging more favourably mid month. Say the 10th-15th or thereabouts
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

12z GFS was fun. NEXT
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Canada Goose »

Keep calm...

https://twitter.com/ensembleator/status ... u8Sjg&s=19
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