January 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

[VanCitySouth]

You get the South of Fraser special with Southerly winds and temps up to +10C tomorrow.

Can it be +10 and windy in southern sections and +0.5 with wet snow in northern sections at the same time? I'm not asking if it will happen (pretty much impossible to predict), just if it's geographically possible.

[wetcoast91]

Can it be +10 and windy in southern sections and +0.5 with wet snow in northern sections at the same time? I'm not asking if it will happen (pretty much impossible to predict), just if it's geographically possible.

March 2014. I think South Surrey was +7C and Vancouver was near 0.5C with heavy wet snow.

[VanCitySouth]

March 2014. I think South Surrey was +7C and Vancouver was near 0.5C with heavy wet snow.

Just to break the theme of the Sunday to Tuesday banter about mild rain vs snow, what do you make of the surprising model consistency (both run to run AND across different agencies) about Wednesday night? Especially considering the large discrepancies leading up to what looks like an identical result?

[SnowGeek11]

What happens if the southerly winds get delayed? And the usual snow belts end up with mostly snow? Even EC seems a uncertain
There's always time for a reverse rug pull...but this time it wud be on Nito

We have some strong gusts from the E still here… EC predicted SW winds by 5pm.

[wetcoast91]

Just to break the theme of the Sunday to Tuesday banter about mild rain vs snow, what do you make of the surprising model consistency (both run to run AND across different agencies) about Wednesday night? Especially considering the large discrepancies leading up to what looks like an identical result?

Most models are in agreement with the Sun-Tues progression at the 500mb level. Some struggle with the micro features such as the erosion of cold air or pressure gradients (wind) but it's otherwise uniform.

EC seems to be going with a hybrid forecast based off climo + modeling output.

[Typeing3]

Currently -1.3c, dp -4.8c here.

[Hawk]

Or...we get a slushy 1cm and then rain and mild temps. I've seen that story before too many times as well, especially when there's been a snowfall warning up. I think EC is just playing it safe and covering their bases they don't want another natural disaster with government hands covered in blood

[VanCitySouth]

Most models are in agreement with the Sun-Tues progression at the 500mb level. Some struggle with the micro features such as the erosion of cold air or pressure gradients (wind) but it's otherwise uniform.

EC seems to be going with a hybrid forecast based off climo + modeling output.

Okay that makes sense. Thank you. Sounds like apparently superficial details can make all the difference for 72 hours then.

[Macster]

You get the South of Fraser special with Southerly winds and temps up to +10C tomorrow.

Yeah! Warm rain and flooding. Come on!.... No wait, that's bad

[Hawk]

March 2014. I think South Surrey was +7C and Vancouver was near 0.5C with heavy wet snow.

Ya but didnt Vanc just not have the S winds yet? Eventually they rolled in a little later? I'm sure temps spiked shortly after.

[PortKells]

The mid week system.

nbm-conus-vancouverski-total_snow_10to1_cm-1621600.png

[Hawk]

EC has already changed the tune for Sunday Pitt Meadows. Now its Snow over higher terrain all day
Sounds like 300m snow levels to me up against the hills with cold air damming

[Radar]

The Fraser today. Langley Abbotsford border area.

4EEB9322-365E-46D2-8E09-5DB250B10D1F.jpeg

[Hawk]

Squamish will disappear off the map this week. It will just be a big mound of white

[Wintergirl]

Squamish will disappear off the map this week. It will just be a big mound of white

Haha!!! I will take lots of photos, currently a few flakes falling!