January 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

[East Chilliwack]

Well l guess to begin with we have a fairly deep layer of cold air in the fraser valley. According to that map posted it looks like ZR from Metro Vancouver to the valley. My 4th winter out here so haven't experienced an ice storm here, just that one couple weeks back Mission Dec/17 was bad enough.

Feb 8-9 2017 was BAD! 1” of ice on the car

[PortKells]

Not Accurate Model.

Nito adjusted model

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Models have for the most part dried out some in the last 24 hours. I think 10–20 cm is a good guess for tonight, with western parts of the metro areas getting amounts on the low end of that range.

“But the GFS…” yes, that’s only one model. The Euro and more importantly short-term models (HRRR, HDRPS) disagree and come in closer to the Euro.

There is so far as I can see total consensus that temperature won’t be an issue until at least tomorrow morning, so there’s that.

[Storm]

https://twitter.com/ensembleator/status ... X1QvQ&s=19

[Storm]

https://twitter.com/MMadryga/status/147 ... AocfA&s=19

[Radar]

That continental air not moving out fast enough. Guess the incoming low is stronger than expected and pushing back more. No more feetz of snow.

This continental air isn’t like arctic air. Have my doubts we will see significant amounts of ice. Just less snow and a quicker scrub out of the minimal cold air. Maybe the Wack will hold out longer for snow given then system approach direction.

[Forrest Gump]

My guess is that we remain snow longer than modelled.

Yeah,from what I remember in 2008 the Arctic reloads lasted much longer than 24 hrs , it will be disappointing if it warms up as modeled.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

https://twitter.com/MMadryga/status/147 ... AocfA&s=19

He seems to be putting a lot of faith in the GooFuS, at least for the city.

[Monty]

12z RGEM. Looks bad.
zr_acc.us_nw.png

Thursday is looking ugly. Rain, slush, sleet, freezing rain.

[Catnip]

Euro Monthlies

A18113B6-3FDA-4543-8B9B-1ECABD268147.png

48585CA3-8F46-4740-A34C-33DEEF6DCF85.png

AA072C5A-4A21-4B26-BFFD-0D7AC714D356.png

[Storm]

He seems to be putting a lot of faith in the GooFuS, at least for the city.

Don't think so. He is way too good for that.

[Storm]

Also GEM is in the ~ 20 cm range.

sn10_acc.us_nw-4.png

[Abby_wx]

This is starting to sound pretty nasty with the freezing rain and then rain. I was looking forward to it, but I'm not so sure anymore.

Currently -7.1C, which is also my low. Beat the forecast low of -3C.

[Catnip]

Low of -3.7 this am.

You can see when the colder air entered the area.

11016158-AB2D-4A3E-82EE-C323F8AB6EC0.jpeg

[AbbyJr]

12Z RGEM has a major ice storm after the heavy snow.

rgem-all-vancouverski-frzr_total-1524400.png