January 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

[Hawk]

Oh wait Nito..did u say AR? Somehow that doesn't surprise me considering it has been Non-Stop precip for the last few months here. Even short term models/forecasts are struggling on precip and amounts

[wetcoast91]

As long as it's not 6 to 8" for the fraser valley that would be absolutely insane and devastating and crazy for an AR event like that in January but nothing surprises me anymore.

GFS isn't as crazy. Tons of warm advection rain riding over a ridge but no 6" precip totals.

1 week away but definitely have to watch which way this goes.

[LynnValley]

So in Lynn valley I got 9cm overnight.

Total of 32cm on the ground for me.
Currently a very light drizzle.

The snow brings the neighbours together we all come out and shovel our elderly neighbours - nice side benefit.

Looking at the cypress ski forums it’s raining up there this morning. They don’t have enough staff to open which is frustrating.

[Roberts Creeker]

8 cm total 5 cm fell last night by midnight so I was expecting more. No precip now and the breeze is knocking all the snow off the trees.

[VanCitySouth]

8 cm total 5 cm fell last night by midnight so I was expecting more. No precip now and the breeze is knocking all the snow off the trees.

After midnight the bulk of the heavy precip shifted south. I think Rubes was ahead of me before midnight but I pipped him on the final tally again.

[Typeing3]

13.5cm since 11pm here. 16cm storm total. Already compacted quite a bit though.

Light freezing rain currently. Measured 4-5mm of ice accretion on one of the tree branches.

Was not fun shoveling the snow with the ice coated on top. Driveway is on an incline so it's super slippery.

Currently -2.2c, dp -2.7c.

[Roberts Creeker]

Did you know you can replay the day on the traffic cams? Here's one in Langdale, press the green replay the day button on the right and watch the trees on the left as they sag under the snow! https://images.drivebc.ca/bchighwaycam/ ... w/908.html

[Typeing3]

GFS isn't as crazy. Tons of warm advection rain riding over a ridge but no 6" precip totals.

1 week away but definitely have to watch which way this goes.

Hopefully the ridge axis trends west and more amplified. Would like to see a prolonged dry spell.

[Typeing3]

12z GFS

Monday

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_18.png

Tuesday

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_22.png

Wednesday

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_25.png

Trend north, trend north!

[wetcoast91]

RGEM and HRDPS continue to show a significant ice storm for the Fraser Valley - East of Abbotsford starting up this afternoon with the arrival of heavy precip which lasts till the overnight hours.

Global models along with the NAM/HRRR suggest winds turning southerly by early afternoon prior to onset of moisture arriving. Quick icing followed by heavy rain.

Siding with the RGEM here.

[East Chilliwack]

Went outside and wow! We got walloped! And it’s actually been dry with a trace of freezing rain overnight. 24cm new snow, 43cm total depth!

[Typeing3]

RGEM and HRDPS continue to show a significant ice storm for the Fraser Valley - East of Abbotsford starting up this afternoon with the arrival of heavy precip which lasts till the overnight hours.

Global models along with the NAM/HRRR suggest winds turning southerly by early afternoon prior to onset of moisture arriving. Quick icing followed by heavy rain.

Siding with the RGEM here.

They did well predicting the ZR event a couple weeks ago.

Temps are still running a couple degrees cooler than modeled here. I was not expecting much ZR but already up to 5mm.

[Typeing3]

You can see the ice accretion pretty clearly here:

20220106_092942.jpg

[Nimbus2]

21 cm of new snow overnight, current temp 0.1 C, light drizzle falling.

[Nimbus2]

I haven't seen Monty on this morning. I am curious to know how much the Shawnigan Lake area got last night. I'm thinking close to 30 cm.