February 2026 Forecasts and Discussions

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

It doesn't get any better then the 00z GoFartasS or the EURO it's game on.

[Roberts Creeker]

28f on Saturday night... brrr!!

Oops, sent it to a friend who uses f. Here it is in c. Still looks exciting!

[Roberts Creeker]

Looks very suspicious Ms. Snowless creeks.

Does it look any less suspicious in C?

[Typeing3]

00z GFS ensembles:

ens_image.png

00z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image (1).png

00z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (2).png

[Hawk]

Interesting times ahead as we head into seemingly prolonged troffing and associated slushfestivals. My guess is someone locally will score a decent snowfall one day, somewhere

[wetcoast91]

Interesting times ahead as we head into seemingly prolonged troffing and associated slushfestivals. My guess is someone locally will score a decent snowfall one day, somewhere

06Z GFS hammers higher elevations (above 400m) with continued snowfalls. Probably up to 50cm near 500m and 150cm above 1000m.

Most of us could see flakes and wet snow at times over the next few weeks. This pattern would deliver had it been early Jan.

[Hawk]

06gfs is looking pretty good imo
lets see what pans out next week as we switch up from cold rains to slushy snows.

Waiting for TheNito analysis this weekend once the picture becomes more clear

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

06Z GFS hammers higher elevations (above 400m) with continued snowfalls. Probably up to 50cm near 500m and 150cm above 1000m.

Most of us could see flakes and wet snow at times over the next few weeks. This pattern would deliver had it been early Jan.

At least it looks promising for building some sorely-needed mountain snow pack. Any scoring IMBY would be icing on the cake (or should I say bark dust).

[PortKells]

06Z GFS hammers higher elevations (above 400m) with continued snowfalls. Probably up to 50cm near 500m and 150cm above 1000m.

Most of us could see flakes and wet snow at times over the next few weeks. This pattern would deliver had it been early Jan.

Yep. We really needed this pattern around December and Jan when it continually teased it. A cruel winter to finally give it to us in late Feb.

[PortKells]

Let's see if the AIFS has this one nailed again.

ecmwf-aifs-all-vancouverski-total_snow_10to1_cm-1761600.png

[tyweather]

You may find this map shocking. The crazy imbalance even surprised me!
It’s the ratio of record highs vs record lows in each city since 2020. That’s right, in Miami there have been 115 daily record highs, but only 1 record morning low! Phoenix: 138 to 0! In a normal climate the ratio would be equal, 1 to 1. The imbalance shows how humankind is now a powerful force of nature! Sure, on the local level, some of this is urban heat island effect, an obvious form of human-caused climate change. But look closely, the greatest imbalance is south & west, near the Gulf and also in the desert. The desert is drying, it’s easier to heat. The oceans are warming as they stockpile extra heat trapped by our now greenhouse gas laden atmosphere. This is some of the clearest evidence of how far we’ve pushed the planet off balance.
More on the data/ how I made this map in the comments. @topfans
From Jeff Beradelli FB

[Hawk]

You may find this map shocking. The crazy imbalance even surprised me!
It’s the ratio of record highs vs record lows in each city since 2020. That’s right, in Miami there have been 115 daily record highs, but only 1 record morning low! Phoenix: 138 to 0! In a normal climate the ratio would be equal, 1 to 1. The imbalance shows how humankind is now a powerful force of nature! Sure, on the local level, some of this is urban heat island effect, an obvious form of human-caused climate change. But look closely, the greatest imbalance is south & west, near the Gulf and also in the desert. The desert is drying, it’s easier to heat. The oceans are warming as they stockpile extra heat trapped by our now greenhouse gas laden atmosphere. This is some of the clearest evidence of how far we’ve pushed the planet off balance.
More on the data/ how I made this map in the comments. @topfans
From Jeff Beradelli FB

So the PNW is one of the "better" ones at a 6:1 ratio H/C
Yessss

[Canada Goose]

Daily records = climatology zero.

[PortKells]

You may find this map shocking. The crazy imbalance even surprised me!
It’s the ratio of record highs vs record lows in each city since 2020. That’s right, in Miami there have been 115 daily record highs, but only 1 record morning low! Phoenix: 138 to 0! In a normal climate the ratio would be equal, 1 to 1. The imbalance shows how humankind is now a powerful force of nature! Sure, on the local level, some of this is urban heat island effect, an obvious form of human-caused climate change. But look closely, the greatest imbalance is south & west, near the Gulf and also in the desert. The desert is drying, it’s easier to heat. The oceans are warming as they stockpile extra heat trapped by our now greenhouse gas laden atmosphere. This is some of the clearest evidence of how far we’ve pushed the planet off balance.
More on the data/ how I made this map in the comments. @topfans
From Jeff Beradelli FB

Sorry man. The debate is over. Not that there ever really was one, in a traditional sense. Bad faith arguments won. It was more of an effort to bury this issue and it worked. We will now weigh cold records equally with hot records, even if they only happen once a decade or so. The POTUS recently "truthed" that the cold plunge out east was proof that global warming is a scam/hoax/whatever. Realistically, we needed to win this fight a long time ago (70's/80's), but the people in control had other plans.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Let's see if the AIFS has this one nailed again.

ecmwf-aifs-all-vancouverski-total_snow_10to1_cm-1761600.png

A lot of that would be phantom snow. My rule of thumb is always to head due west from Vancouver into the middle of the Strait. Anything modelled there is well away from mountains and thus likely not terrain bleed. That would mean around 10 cm of actual lowland snow. I’ll take it!