PortKells wrote: ↑Mon Dec 29, 2025 4:07 pm
False. They've been showing Alaskan troughing moving south which is like a unicorn event. Having a retrograding ridge is completely different from what's been shown. Surely you must know that?
You come off like you've been hitting the sauce a little early here bud. Still two days until NYE
Typeing3 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 28, 2025 6:41 pm
Ice storms seldom occur in Metro Vancouver (especially Vancouver proper), but yes, there was lots of freezing rain across most of the south coast after the snowstorm.
It was only for a few hours, but I was there Was really hard getting back across the Cambie bridge that evening as it was raining on ice.
PortKells wrote: ↑Mon Dec 29, 2025 1:15 pm
The Euro has been pretty bad this year in my opinion. GFS too obviously. GEM is less talked about but it almost never advertises fake cold blasts and I don't really believe anything until it's on board. Could say the same thing about the AI's, unfortunately.
I fully agree. I think the Euro is often overhyped. Yes, it’s a very good model and may very well get one of the highest verification scores. But some people talk as if it’s infallible, which is simply not true. I’ve seen its solutions fail to verify on many occasions. In fact, in my opinion, its snowfall maps have been far worse than the GFS this winter. Even last February, it kept outputting ridiculous amounts of snow in the short term that never even came close to verifying. That said, I do trust the Euro more than the GFS, especially when it comes to the short term and medium range. But again, I also think it’s an overrated model.
Well it's a fools errand trying to take upper atmosphere 5-day skill scores and apply them to highly variable localized weather patterns, but the GFS is often beaten to the punch by the Euro, GEM, ICON, UKMET and so on... Euro may be overrated but the GooFus is not by any means shining in comparison
PortKells wrote: ↑Mon Dec 29, 2025 4:07 pm
False. They've been showing Alaskan troughing moving south which is like a unicorn event. Having a retrograding ridge is completely different from what's been shown. Surely you must know that?
You come off like you've been hitting the sauce a little early here bud. Still two days until NYE
Progression this season. Retrogression in 2024-25. The end result has been a semi-permanent Hudson vortex. Euro LR forecasts may be showing a textbook -ENSO pattern in that 14+ due to the partial input based off climo.
We'll see...this was.the advertised LR forecast for December into January. Had a similar retrogression signal.
wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 29, 2025 9:44 pm
Progression this season. Retrogression in 2024-25. The end result has been a semi-permanent Hudson vortex. Euro LR forecasts may be showing a textbook -ENSO pattern in that 14+ due to the partial input based off climo.
We'll see...this was.the advertised LR forecast for December into January. Had a similar retrogression signal.
That's a remarkably accurate model run that never really shows the ridge placement in the right spot for us. The retrogression is too far north east. Looks more like an alaskan vortex issue to me. Which is kind of what happened but it's breaking down.
We will see! Probably just going to be another February to Remembuary.
PortKells wrote: ↑Mon Dec 29, 2025 9:50 pm
That's a remarkably accurate model run that never really shows the ridge placement in the right spot for us. The retrogression is too far north east. Looks more like an alaskan vortex issue to me. Which is kind of what happened but it's breaking down.
We will see! Probably just going to be another February to Remembuary.
Yeah. We're still in an -ENSO state and activity in the E tropics should simmer down. Odds are we will see measureable lowland snow in February.
GEFS is a banger! Unfortunately it's the GEFS. But that's a strong signal. And it led the way as the other ensembles moved toward it toight. I'm thinking something is brewing...
gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-8435200.png
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Kells!
Was really hard getting back across the Cambie bridge that evening as it was raining on ice.
victory?