February 2026 Forecasts and Discussions

[Typeing3]

Rain showers in the #BananaBelt.

Currently 2.5c.

[PortKells]

Latest 48 hour HRRR. Hope still lives. Edit: I checked temps. 925s are around -2 when the heavier stuff arrives Wednesday and ground temps around 1 C.

hrrr-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-1459200.png

[Hawk]

The slushfestival has begun on HawksHill..about 20 mins ago. Im just bonging out for a bit iibh

[PortKells]

And here's the more recent 10 hour one. Puts a band of snow kind of through the eastern part of Van Metro.

hrrr-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-1326000.png

[Hawk]

The slushfestival has begun on HawksHill..about 20 mins ago. Im just bonging out for a bit iibh

[AbbyJr]

I doubt it. I really think pacific SSTs are the culprit. The models always do this with marginal stuff. I think they are able to incorporate just how how warm the ocean is.

Personally, I don't think the SSTs are the issue. Rather, the upper level pattern is simply not ideal for low elevation snowfall without there already being arctic air deeply entrenched over the region. Unfortunately, there's not enough cold with the polar lobe and much of the cold that is associated with it is being ejected into the ocean. While this pattern would likely have a better chance at performing in December or January, it's still a marginal setup at best. Therefore, in my opinion, we would still struggle to get widespread low elevation snow here even if the SSTs were well below average.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

2.3˚C, warmer than it was a couple hours ago.

[PortKells]

Personally, I don't think the SSTs are the issue. Rather, the upper level pattern is simply not ideal for low elevation snowfall without there already being arctic air deeply entrenched over the region. Unfortunately, there's not enough cold with the polar lobe and much of the cold that is associated with it is being ejected into the ocean. While this pattern would likely have a better chance at performing in December or January, it's still a marginal setup at best. Therefore, in my opinion, we would still struggle to get widespread low elevation snow here even if the SSTs were well below average.

Agreed that these set ups seem to fail even during the best of months. I'm trying to think of an example, maybe Jan 24 2021. I remember the set up being somewhat similar - cold air mass on our doorsetp, not quite deep enough but also modeled to produce snow here right up until the last day or two and then the models realized it was too warm. Other than the Euro, which doesn't seem to be able to pick up on that.

I think that part of our decrease in snow over time is not just a decrease in polar air masses, but also the inability to get marginal set ups to produce. SSTs will play a part in that. I'm going to even speculate that warmer SSTs off our coast can affect the trajectory of these polar lobes, causing them not to sink as deep. Think about how many times the models have overdone the southern trajectory of an airmass in recent years. It's actually played into our favour sometimes but I have noticed a striking trend.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

HRDPS says white stuff for some tonight.

hrdps-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-1351200.png

[Canada Goose]

Not. Gonna. Happen.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

I’ve already received a slushy dusting today. And I believe that by this point, so has Hawk.

outta the belt

[PortKells]

not-over-till-i-say-its-over.gif

[Hawk]

its been snowing here for quite a while now. Dusting on the grass and cars are starting to get white

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

You called it correctly Goose head no snow.

[PortKells]

its been snowing here for quite a while now. Dusting on the grass and cars are starting to get white

Oh nice. The models were right to screw me by <5 km. Whatever, at least someone is getting something!